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Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia

Leigh, Andrew; McLeish, Mark


Using data from 191 Australian state elections, we test how voters respond to economic conditions. We find that unemployment has a strong impact on election outcomes, with each additional percentage point of unemployment reducing the incumbent's re-election probability by 3-5 per cent. However, when we separate luck (unemployment in other states) from competence (unemployment in that state relative to the rest of Australia), we find that both luck and competence are equally important. This is...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2009
Type: Journal article
Source: The Economic Record
DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2009.00549.x


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