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Can oil and precious metal price forecast exchange and interest rate movement in Bangladesh?

Das, Debasish; Dutta, Champa Bati


This paper investigates the predictive power of world oil and precious metal price for exchange rate (BDT/US dollar) and interest rate movements using monthly data spanning from January 1990 to April 2016. Using a structural VAR with identification restriction, our impulse response and variance decomposition analysis suggest that oil price has a significant influence in forecasting both exchange and interest rate in short-run. Whereas, precious metal (i.e. gold and silver) price tends to...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2019
Type: Journal article
Source: Journal of International Trade and Economic Development
DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2019.1655584


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