Ryan, Laura; Whiting, Bronwen
We measure the performance of multi-model inference (MMI) forecasts compared to predictions made from a single model for crude oil prices. We forecast the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices using total OECD petroleum inventory levels, surplus production capacity, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index and an implementation of a subset autoregression with exogenous variables (SARX). Coefficient and standard error estimates obtained from SARX determined by...[Show more]
Items in Open Research are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.