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Demographic Forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in Review

Booth, Heather


Approaches and developments in demographic and population forecasting since 1980 are reviewed. Three approaches to forecasting demographic processes are extrapolation, expectation (individual-level birth expectations or population-level opinions of experts), and theory-based structural modelling involving exogenous variables. Models include 0-3 factors (age, period and cohort). Decomposition and disaggregation are also used in multistate models, including macrosimulation and microsimulation....[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2006
Type: Journal article
Source: International Journal of Forecasting
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.04.001


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