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A synthetic population for modelling the dynamics of infectious disease transmission in American Samoa Scientific Reports

Xu, Zhijing; Glass, Kathryn; Lau, Colleen; Geard, Nicholas; Graves, Patricia; Clements, Archie

Description

Agent-based modelling is a useful approach for capturing heterogeneity in disease transmission. In this study, a synthetic population was developed for American Samoa using an iterative approach based on population census, questionnaire survey and land use data. The population will be used as the basis for a new agent-based model, intended specifically to fill the knowledge gaps about lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination, but also to be readily adaptable to model other infectious...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorXu, Zhijing
dc.contributor.authorGlass, Kathryn
dc.contributor.authorLau, Colleen
dc.contributor.authorGeard, Nicholas
dc.contributor.authorGraves, Patricia
dc.contributor.authorClements, Archie
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-04T00:45:09Z
dc.date.available2021-05-04T00:45:09Z
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/231414
dc.description.abstractAgent-based modelling is a useful approach for capturing heterogeneity in disease transmission. In this study, a synthetic population was developed for American Samoa using an iterative approach based on population census, questionnaire survey and land use data. The population will be used as the basis for a new agent-based model, intended specifically to fill the knowledge gaps about lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination, but also to be readily adaptable to model other infectious diseases. The synthetic population was characterized by the statistically realistic population and household structure, and high-resolution geographic locations of households. The population was simulated over 40 years from 2010 to 2050. The simulated population was compared to estimates and projections of the U.S. Census Bureau. The results showed the total population would continuously decrease due to the observed large number of emigrants. Population ageing was observed, which was consistent with the latest two population censuses and the Bureau’s projections. The sex ratios by age groups were analysed and indicated an increase in the proportion of males in age groups 0–14 and 15–64. The household size followed a Gaussian distribution with an average size of around 5.0 throughout the simulation, slightly less than the initial average size 5.6.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_AU
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2017
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.sourceScientific Reports
dc.titleA synthetic population for modelling the dynamics of infectious disease transmission in American Samoa Scientific Reports
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume7
dc.date.issued2017
local.identifier.absfor111706 - Epidemiology
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4492120xPUB213
local.publisher.urlhttp://www.nature.com/srep/index.html
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationXu, Zhijing, College of Health and Medicine, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationGlass, Katie, College of Health and Medicine, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationLau, Colleen, College of Health and Medicine, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationGeard, Nicholas, University of Melbourne
local.contributor.affiliationGraves, Patricia, James Cook University
local.contributor.affiliationClements, Archie, College of Health and Medicine, ANU
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage1
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage9
local.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-017-17093-8
local.identifier.absseo920204 - Evaluation of Health Outcomes
dc.date.updated2020-11-23T10:08:32Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-85036655287
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dc.provenanceThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
dc.rights.licenseCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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