A new approach to projecting 21st century sea-level changes and extremes
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Goodwin, Philip; Haigh, Ivan D.; Rohling, Eelco; Slangen, Aimee
Description
Future increases in flooding potential around the world’s coastlines from extreme sea level events is heavily dependent on projections of future global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Yet, the two main approaches for projecting 21st century GMSL rise—i.e., process-based versus semi-empirical—give inconsistent results. Here, a novel hybrid approach to GMSL projection, containing a process-based thermosteric contribution and a semi-empirical ice-melt contribution, is embedded within a conceptual...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Goodwin, Philip | |
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dc.contributor.author | Haigh, Ivan D. | |
dc.contributor.author | Rohling, Eelco | |
dc.contributor.author | Slangen, Aimee | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-04-29T03:42:09Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-04-29T03:42:09Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2328-4277 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/231124 | |
dc.description.abstract | Future increases in flooding potential around the world’s coastlines from extreme sea level events is heavily dependent on projections of future global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Yet, the two main approaches for projecting 21st century GMSL rise—i.e., process-based versus semi-empirical—give inconsistent results. Here, a novel hybrid approach to GMSL projection, containing a process-based thermosteric contribution and a semi-empirical ice-melt contribution, is embedded within a conceptual Earth system model (ESM). The ESM is run 10 million times with random perturbations to multiple parameters, and future projections are made only from the simulations that are historically consistent. The projections from our hybrid approach are found to be consistent with the dominant process-based GMSL projections from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, in that our future ensemble-mean projections lie within ±2 cm of CMIP5 for the end of the 21st century when CMIP5-simulated histories are used to constrain our approach. However, when observations are used to provide the historic constraints for our hybrid approach, we find higher ice-melt sensitivity and additional ensemble-mean GMSL rise of around 13–16 cm by the end of the century. We assess the impact of this additional GMSL rise, projected from observation-consistency, on the increase in frequency of extreme sea level events for 220 coastal tide-gauge sites. Accounting for regional effects, we infer a 1.5–8 times increase in the frequency of extreme sea-level events for our higher GMSL projections relative to CMIP5. | |
dc.description.sponsorship | This work was supported by a UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grants NE/P01495X/1 and NE/N009789/1, and contributes to UK-NERC consortium iGlass (NE/I009906/1). EJR acknowledges support from Australian Laureate Fellowship FL120100050 | |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.language.iso | en_AU | |
dc.publisher | American Geophysical Union | |
dc.rights | © 2017 The Authors | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
dc.source | Earth's Future | |
dc.title | A new approach to projecting 21st century sea-level changes and extremes | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | 5 | |
dc.date.issued | 2017 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 059999 - Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | a383154xPUB5284 | |
local.publisher.url | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)2328-4277 | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Goodwin, Philip, University of Southampton | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Haigh, Ivan D., University of Southampton | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Rohling, Eelco, College of Science, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Slangen, Aimee, University of Utrecht | |
dc.relation | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FL120100050 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 2 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 240 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 253 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1002/2016EF000508 | |
local.identifier.absseo | 970105 - Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences | |
dc.date.updated | 2020-11-23T10:06:48Z | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-85013660702 | |
local.identifier.thomsonID | 000396932200009 | |
dcterms.accessRights | Open Access | |
dc.provenance | This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | |
dc.rights.license | Creative Commons Attribution License | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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