Leadership in the region

Abstract

Leadership in Asia today confronts the ‘most interesting of times’. The emerging powers of China, India and Indonesia face the twin challenges of unprecedented economic and social transformation, and crafting an approach to manage their new weight in the world, including expectations among the established powers in North America and Europe about how they should share the burdens of international leadership. The consequent tensions are most evident currently over territorial issues in the South China Sea but there will be others. Asian political systems, and political leadership, come in many shapes. Political dynasties, even in democratic polities, are a resilient feature. In Japan, Prime Minister Abe, with his three arrows, comes from a political line with impeccable conservative form. President Xi is a princeling of the Chinese revolution, set on a course of deep economic and political reform that apparently eschews overturning its authoritarian fundamentals. Modi and Jokowi are remarkable—the directly-elected leaders of large democracies, trying to break out of the mould of past leadership style and substance. They all face uphill battles in achieving their ambition for reform, while protecting their base of domestic political support. Collectively these countries now account for close to half the world’s real economic power. Japan excepted, they lag in terms of military power and technology. How can they assume their proper role in running global and regional affairs? What new structures are needed to assist the transit of Asian power, if any? These are the questions with which this issue of East Asia Forum Quarterly deals. The sharp edge of these questions is about the evolution of the relationship between the United States and China. Recognition that the status quo of US leadership is unlikely to endure is one thing; China’s replacing it without a revolution in its political system is equally unlikely. So what’s the way forward? Can like-minded middle powers help to shape a stable order? This EAFQ’s Asian Review feature deals with some hugely important and related issues: China’s corruption drive; normalising China–Japan security relations; and Jerry Cohen’s reflections on Lee Kuan Yew.