Operating at the extreme: estimating the upper yield boundary of winter wheat production in commercial practice
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Mitchell, Emily G; Crout, N.; Wilson, Paul; Wood, Andrew; Stupfler, Giles
Description
Wheat farming provides 28.5% of global cereal production. After steady growth in average crop yield from 1950 to 1990, wheat yields have generally stagnated, which prompts the question of whether further improvements are possible. Statistical studies of agronomic parameters such as crop yield have so far exclusively focused on estimating parameters describing the whole of the data, rather than the highest yields specifically. These indicators include the mean or median yield of a crop, or...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Mitchell, Emily G | |
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dc.contributor.author | Crout, N. | |
dc.contributor.author | Wilson, Paul | |
dc.contributor.author | Wood, Andrew | |
dc.contributor.author | Stupfler, Giles | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-18T23:55:14Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-01-18T23:55:14Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2054-5703 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/219718 | |
dc.description.abstract | Wheat farming provides 28.5% of global cereal production. After steady growth in average crop yield from 1950 to 1990, wheat yields have generally stagnated, which prompts the question of whether further improvements are possible. Statistical studies of agronomic parameters such as crop yield have so far exclusively focused on estimating parameters describing the whole of the data, rather than the highest yields specifically. These indicators include the mean or median yield of a crop, or finding the combinations of agronomic traits that are correlated with increasing average yields. In this paper, we take an alternative approach and consider high yields only. We carry out an extreme value analysis of winter wheat yield data collected in England and Wales between 2006 and 2015. This analysis suggests that, under current climate and growing conditions, there is indeed a finite upper bound for winter wheat yield, whose value we estimate to be 17.60 tonnes per hectare. We then refine the analysis for strata defined by either location or level of use of agricultural inputs. We find that there is no statistical evidence for variation of maximal yield depending on location, and neither is there statistical evidence that maximum yield levels are improved by high levels of crop protection and fertilizer use. | |
dc.description.sponsorship | E.G.M.’s work has been funded under the Leverhulme Doctoral Scholarship grant scheme as part of the Modelling and Analytics for a Sustainable Society PhD programme at the University of Nottingham. | |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.language.iso | en_AU | |
dc.publisher | The Royal Society Publishing | |
dc.rights | © 2020 The Authors. | |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
dc.source | Royal Society Open Science | |
dc.subject | Extreme value analysis | |
dc.subject | generalized Pareto distribution | |
dc.subject | maximum yield levels | |
dc.subject | winter wheat yield | |
dc.title | Operating at the extreme: estimating the upper yield boundary of winter wheat production in commercial practice | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | 7 | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 010401 - Applied Statistics | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | u1027566xPUB142 | |
local.publisher.url | http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/ | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Mitchell, Emily G, University of Nottingham | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Crout, N., University of Nottingham | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Wilson, Paul, School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Wood, Andrew, College of Business and Economics, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Stupfler, Giles, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 4 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 1 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 12 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1098/rsos.191919 | |
dc.date.updated | 2020-11-02T04:19:28Z | |
dcterms.accessRights | Open Access | |
dc.provenance | © 2020 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. | |
dc.rights.license | Creative Commons Attribution License | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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