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Genocide Forecasting: Past Accuracy and New Forecasts to 2020

Goldsmith, Benjamin; Butcher, Charles


We assess the accuracy of genocide forecasts made by the Atrocity Forecasting Project (AFP) for 2011–15, and present new forecasts for 2016–20. Using data from the United Nations, Genocide Watch and the Political Instability Task Force, we evaluate AFP accuracy. We compare AFP accuracy with that of forecasts from the Genocide Prevention Advisory Network. It is relatively rare in most areas of social science that researchers produce (and make public) future forecasts. It is rarer still to...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2017
Type: Journal article
Source: Journal of Genocide Research
DOI: 10.1080/14623528.2017.1379631


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