From Minority to Mainstream - The Electoral Rise of the Scottish National Party 1999-2016

Abstract

With the re-establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, the Scottish National Party (SNP) became the main opposition party, and since 2007 has been the governing party. This rise to power was not a given, and is in comparison to the Welsh nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, which lost seats over the same period in Welsh parliamentary elections. Using data from the Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys and Scottish Election Studies, examining manifestos and key indicators, as well as interview feedback from Members of the Scottish Parliament and Scottish journalists, this study explores the various factors behind the electoral success of the SNP in Scottish elections. It examines the electoral success of the SNP across the first five elections of the Scottish Parliament, from 1999 until 2016, and explores the role of professionalisation, national identity, constitutional preferences, governing competence, other parties, leadership and the media.

The study contributes to our understanding of how parties transition from niche to government and has implications for regional and nationalist movements in Western democracies. The key findings are that the Scottish National Party has been successful in Scottish elections primarily because of a process of professionalisation over several decades, opposition and governing competence, and effective leadership. The SNP has remained a mass party, but with elements of electoral-professional and catch-all party types. The analysis may provide clues as to whether the trend of success is likely to continue and thus whether the United Kingdom will remain intact or not. In a sense, the SNP is no ordinary party, but a party that has and will play a pivotal role in Scottish, British, European and world history.