Japan Repositions

Abstract

Japan is repositioning. Domestically, with the collapse of his electoral support base, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe no longer looks like Teflon man. He has not been able to shake off scandals around what appear to be special deals for friends, while the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a major loss to Governor of Tokyo Koike Yuriko in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in July. Yet the main opposition to the LDP at the national level, the Democratic Party, remains in tatters, its future uncertain. If Abe is to survive until the Olympics in 2020, he will have to be seen to make progress soon on difficult economic reforms. His tenure as prime minister since 2012 has brought political stability and a sense of leadership but he is yet to make a dent in the big structural issues of an ageing and shrinking population, rising inequality and rising government debt. The external environment in which Japan finds itself has suddenly become more unpredictable and fluid than at any time since World War II. Dealing with a rising China is hard enough given the icy political relationship between the two countries, but the election of President Donald Trump has brought a new uncertainty to the US regional and global position, and to the international institutions and the rules-based order upon which Japan has relied. The escalating rhetoric from Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un threatens peace in Northeast Asia, with the development of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program now a real threat to Japan. This issue of East Asia Forum Quarterly examines key aspects of how Japan is repositioning on these and other issues and what has to be done. Abe’s adept diplomacy saw initial success in creating a close personal and working relationship with President Trump. But the growing uncertainty from Trump’s America has shown Abe’s deep pragmatism in what might be the first signs of his pivot to repair relations with China. At home, Abe has put the empowerment of women on the agenda. Some progress has been made but it’s still the case that for many women the choice between children and career is too heavily constrained by institutional and policy failure. For a country which is yet to grapple with immigration front-on, social attitudes will have to change if the potential for women and immigrants to revive Japanese society and its economy are to be fulfilled. In Asian Review we cover what to do about the next Asian financial crisis, the Chinese view on North Korea, US strategy in the South China Sea and the political future of India’s Narendra Modi.