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Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long-run global implications

Golley, Jane; Tyers, Rod; Zhou, Yixiao

Description

Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China's reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong GDP growth. Headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing. Rising aged dependency combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy, but they will reduce both GDP growth and real per capita income. While an effective two-child policy could sustain growth and...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorGolley, Jane
dc.contributor.authorTyers, Rod
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Yixiao
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-16T23:33:54Z
dc.identifier.issn0378-5920
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/206299
dc.description.abstractFollowing three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China's reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong GDP growth. Headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing. Rising aged dependency combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy, but they will reduce both GDP growth and real per capita income. While an effective two-child policy could sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem, it would set real per capita income on a still lower path. These conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model, which shows how the continuing demographic and saving contractions in China would alter the trajectories of both the Chinese and global economies.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_AU
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd
dc.rights© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
dc.sourceThe World Economy
dc.titleFertility and savings contractions in China: Long-run global implications
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume41
dc.date.issued2018
local.identifier.absfor140202 - Economic Development and Growth
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4485658xPUB2641
local.publisher.urlhttps://www.wiley.com/en-gb
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationGolley, Jane, College of Asia and the Pacific, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationTyers, Rod, College of Business and Economics, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationZhou, Yixiao, Curtin University
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue11
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage3194
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage3220
local.identifier.doi10.1111/twec.12602
local.identifier.absseo910199 - Macroeconomics not elsewhere classified
dc.date.updated2020-04-05T08:18:40Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-85056589395
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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