East Asia Forum Quarterly: Volume 10, Number 1, 2018

Abstract

In recent times we’ve seen the United States retreat from leading the global order and apparently reversing its pivot to Asia; the rise of China with its aggressive stance on the South China Sea and its infrastructure development ‘carrot’, the Belt and Road Initiative; a putative ‘Quad’ configuration of Indo-Pacific power around the US, India, Japan and Australia; and a hot spot in North Korea. Given all this and continued US–China rivalry for regional leadership, what role can ASEAN play? How viable is ASEAN centrality, given the diversity of its members and its new challenges? In this EAFQ we examine these questions first from the outside, comparing the substance of US repositioning with its rhetoric (Hufbauer and Searight) and how Australia, like the rest of the region, must prepare itself to live in Asia without the United States. This will require being less reliant on the United States and engaging with China while strengthening relations with regional partners, such as ASEAN, and possibly the Indo-Pacific group (Evans, Milner). North Korea plays into these uncertainties (Costello). What are the pillars of ASEAN cooperation, and the ASEAN plus cooperation mechanisms, incorporating dialogue partners but with ASEAN ‘centrality’? The value of ASEAN economic integration to the multilateral trade liberalisation agenda, the challenges ahead for deeper integration beyond the border (Menon) and the importance of the momentum for both in negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) (Hufbauer) are one element. Others, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus, ensure continuation of ASEAN’s balancing role. But they will both need to be strengthened and extended to deal with issues like the South China Sea (Kuik, Tan), counter-terrorism and combating intolerance (Jayakumar). To not be eclipsed, ASEAN needs to reposition significantly (Chong, Vermonte). We examine key member-state commitment to ASEAN—with Vietnam’s view of ASEAN as a buffer in great power dynamics (Huong) and Thailand seeing ASEAN’s value for regional prosperity and security (Blaxland and Raymond)—and offer a caution on expectations of Indonesian leadership, given its political election cycle (Sinatra).