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Strategic surprise, nuclear proliferation and US foreign policy

Cohen, Michael; Rapport, Aaron


What are the effects of strategic surprise on foreign policy? We apply mechanisms from cognitive psychology and foreign policy analysis — the hindsight bias and policy engagement — to theorize about how political leaders attribute blame for strategic surprises and the consequences for their foreign policies. We argue that leaders who are hardly engaged with policy matters related to a surprise will tend to believe that it should have been foreseen, attribute blame to domestic culprits and...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2019
Type: Journal article
Source: European Journal of International Relations
DOI: 10.1177/1354066119859925


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