Strategic surprise, nuclear proliferation and US foreign policy
Cohen, Michael; Rapport, Aaron
What are the effects of strategic surprise on foreign policy? We apply mechanisms from cognitive psychology and foreign policy analysis — the hindsight bias and policy engagement — to theorize about how political leaders attribute blame for strategic surprises and the consequences for their foreign policies. We argue that leaders who are hardly engaged with policy matters related to a surprise will tend to believe that it should have been foreseen, attribute blame to domestic culprits and...[Show more]
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|Source:||European Journal of International Relations|
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