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Projected mesothelioma incidence in men in New South Wales

Clements, Mark; Berry, Geoffrey; Shi, Jill; Ware, Sandra; Yates, Deborah; Johnson, Anthony

Description

Objectives: Based on observed numbers of incident mesotheliomas since 1972, to predict future numbers in men in New South Wales. Methods: The incidence of mesothelioma was modelled in two ways. First by using an age/birth cohort model, and second by using a model based on potential exposure to asbestos in terms of age and calendar year. The latter model included a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lungs, and a term for diagnostic fraction. The age and calendar year model was based...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorClements, Mark
dc.contributor.authorBerry, Geoffrey
dc.contributor.authorShi, Jill
dc.contributor.authorWare, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorYates, Deborah
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, Anthony
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-07T22:13:40Z
dc.identifier.issn1076-2752
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/17107
dc.description.abstractObjectives: Based on observed numbers of incident mesotheliomas since 1972, to predict future numbers in men in New South Wales. Methods: The incidence of mesothelioma was modelled in two ways. First by using an age/birth cohort model, and second by using a model based on potential exposure to asbestos in terms of age and calendar year. The latter model included a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lungs, and a term for diagnostic fraction. The age and calendar year model was based on the model introduced by Hodgson and colleagues but replaced piecewise effects by smooth functions represented by cubic splines. Results: The number of mesotheliomas between 2004 and 2060 was predicted as 6690 with the age-cohort model and as 6779 by the age and calendar year model, with peak annual numbers of 187 in the year 2021 and 196 in the year 2014 with the two models respectively. Conclusions: The pattern of parameter estimates in the two models was in accord with the known use of amphibole asbestos in Australia. The predicted peak year of 2014-21 is 30-35 years after the phasing out of amphibole use, and this period is in accord with predictions for the UK and the US; in the latter country the peak was 10-15 years earlier corresponding to a marked decline of amphibole use in and following the 1960s.
dc.publisherLippincott Williams & Wilkins
dc.sourceJournal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
dc.subjectKeywords: amphibole; asbestos fiber; amphibole; asbestos; adult; age; aged; article; Australia; birth; cancer incidence; cohort analysis; human; major clinical study; male; mesothelioma; occupational exposure; parameter; prediction; priority journal; Australia; con
dc.titleProjected mesothelioma incidence in men in New South Wales
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume64
dc.date.issued2007
local.identifier.absfor111706 - Epidemiology
local.identifier.ariespublicationu3144615xPUB1
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationClements, Mark, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationBerry, Geoffrey, University of Sydney
local.contributor.affiliationShi, Jill, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationWare, Sandra, Dust Diseases Board
local.contributor.affiliationYates, Deborah, Dust Diseases Board
local.contributor.affiliationJohnson, Anthony, Dust Diseases Board
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue11
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage747
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage752
local.identifier.doi10.1136/oem.2006.031823
local.identifier.absseo920505 - Occupational Health
dc.date.updated2015-12-07T07:18:02Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-35548998816
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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