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Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US presidential elections, 2004-2016

Bon, Joshua J; Ballard, Timothy; Baffour, Bernard

Description

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided voters were sufficiently small to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2018
Type: Journal article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/164675
Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12414

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