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Human population density and extinction risk in the world's carnivores

Cardillo, Marcel; Purvis, Andy; Sechrest, Wes; Gittleman, John L.; Bielby, Jon; Mace, Georgina M.

Description

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorCardillo, Marcel
dc.contributor.authorPurvis, Andy
dc.contributor.authorSechrest, Wes
dc.contributor.authorGittleman, John L.
dc.contributor.authorBielby, Jon
dc.contributor.authorMace, Georgina M.
dc.date.accessioned2015-10-25T23:17:36Z
dc.date.available2015-10-25T23:17:36Z
dc.identifier.issn1544-9173
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/16069
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was funded by grants from the Natural Environment Research Council (NER/A/S/2001/00581), Conservation International’s Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, and the National Science Foundation (DEB/0129009).
dc.format6 pages
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science
dc.rights© 2004 Cardillo et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
dc.sourcePLoS Biology
dc.subjectanimals
dc.subjectbiological evolution
dc.subjectecology
dc.subjectenvironment
dc.subjecthumans
dc.subjectmammals
dc.subjectmodels, biological
dc.subjectmodels, statistical
dc.subjectphylogeny
dc.subjectpopulation density
dc.subjectpopulation dynamics
dc.subjectregression analysis
dc.subjectrisk
dc.subjectspecies specificity
dc.subjectbiodiversity
dc.subjectcarnivora
dc.subjectconservation of natural resources
dc.subjectecosystem
dc.titleHuman population density and extinction risk in the world's carnivores
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.description.notesAt the time of publication, Marcel Cardillo was affiliated with Department of Biological Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom and Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom.
local.identifier.citationvolume2
dcterms.dateAccepted2004-04-22
dc.date.issued2004-07-13
local.identifier.absfor060311
local.identifier.absfor060309
local.identifier.absfor050202
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4222028xPUB205
local.publisher.urlhttps://www.plos.org/
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationCardillo, Marcel, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, CMBE Research School of Biology, Division of Evolution, Ecology & Genetics, The Australian National University
local.contributor.affiliationPurvis, A., Imperial College London, United Kingdom
local.contributor.affiliationSechrest, Wes, University of Virginia, United States of America
local.contributor.affiliationGittleman, John L, University of Virginia, United States of America
local.contributor.affiliationBielby, Jon, Zoological Society of London, United Kingdom
local.contributor.affiliationMace, Georgina M, Zoological Society of London, United Kingdom
local.identifier.essn1545-7885
local.bibliographicCitation.issue7
local.bibliographicCitation.startpagee197
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage0914
local.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pbio.0020197
dc.date.updated2015-12-09T08:13:44Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-19344367831
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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