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Reasoned decision making without math? Adaptability and robustness in response to surprise

Smithson, Michael; Ben-Haim, Yakov

Description

Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info-gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2015-05-01
Type: Journal article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/15407
Source: Risk Analysis
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12397

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