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Coping with Nasty Surprises: Improving Risk Management in the Public Sector Using Simplified Bayesian Methods

Matthews, Mark; Kompas, Thomas

Description

Bayesian methods are particularly useful to informing decisions when information is sparse and ambiguous, but decisions involving risks must still be made in a timely manner. Given the utility of these approaches to public policy, this article considers the case for refreshing the general practice of risk management in governance by using a simplified Bayesian approach based on using raw data expressed as �natural frequencies�. This simplified Bayesian approach, which benefits from the...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2015
Type: Journal article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/153725
Source: Asia & The Pacific Policy Studies
DOI: 10.1002/app5.100
Access Rights: Open Access

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