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Spatial patterns and socioecological drivers of dengue fever transmission in Queensland, Australia

Hu, Wenbiao; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shi-Lu; Mengersen, Kerrie; Clements, Archie

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Background: Understanding how socioecological factors affect the transmission of dengue fever (DF) may help to develop an early warning system of DF. Objectives: We examined the impact of socioecological factors on the transmission of DF and assessed potential predictors of locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases of DF in Queensland, Australia. Methods: We obtained data from Queensland Health on the numbers of notified DF cases by local government area (LGA) in Queensland for the period 1...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorHu, Wenbiao
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, Gail
dc.contributor.authorTong, Shi-Lu
dc.contributor.authorMengersen, Kerrie
dc.contributor.authorClements, Archie
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-29T22:54:06Z
dc.date.available2018-11-29T22:54:06Z
dc.identifier.issn0091-6765
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/152670
dc.description.abstractBackground: Understanding how socioecological factors affect the transmission of dengue fever (DF) may help to develop an early warning system of DF. Objectives: We examined the impact of socioecological factors on the transmission of DF and assessed potential predictors of locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases of DF in Queensland, Australia. Methods: We obtained data from Queensland Health on the numbers of notified DF cases by local government area (LGA) in Queensland for the period 1 January 2002 through 31 December 2005. Data on weather and the socioeconomic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the LGA level to quantify the relationship between DF and socioecological factors. Results: Our estimates suggest an increase in locally acquired DF of 6% [95% credible interval (CI): 2%, 11%] and 61% (95% CI: 2%, 241%) in association with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1°C increase in average monthly maximum temperature between 2002 and 2005, respectively. By contrast, overseas-acquired DF cases increased by 1% (95% CI: 0%, 3%) and by 1% (95% CI: 0%, 2%) in association with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1-unit increase in average socioeconomic index, respectively. Conclusions: Socioecological factors appear to influence the transmission of DF in Queensland, but the drivers of locally acquired and overseas-acquired DF may differ. DF risk is spatially clustered with different patterns for locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.publisherNational Institute of Environmental Sciences
dc.sourceEnvironmental Health Perspectives
dc.subjectKeywords: rain; article; Australia; Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model; dengue; environmental factor; environmental temperature; geographic distribution; human; import disease; infection risk; number of overseas visitors; population and population re Bayesian spatial analysis; Dengue; Socioecological factors. environ health
dc.titleSpatial patterns and socioecological drivers of dengue fever transmission in Queensland, Australia
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume120
dc.date.issued2012
local.identifier.absfor111706 - Epidemiology
local.identifier.ariespublicationU3488905xPUB4080
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationHu, Wenbiao, University of Queensland
local.contributor.affiliationClements, Archie, College of Health and Medicine, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationWilliams, Gail, University of Queensland
local.contributor.affiliationTong, Shi-Lu, Queensland University of Technology
local.contributor.affiliationMengersen, Kerrie, Queensland University of Technology
local.bibliographicCitation.issue2
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage260
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage266
local.identifier.doi10.1289/ehp.1003270
dc.date.updated2018-11-29T07:57:35Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-84856703481
local.identifier.thomsonID000299915400031
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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