Increased simulated risk of the hot Australian summer of 2012/13 due to anthropogenic activity as measured by heat wave frequency and intensity

Abstract

The Australian summer of 2012/13 was the warmest since records began in 1910 (Bureau of Meteorology 2013a). The season was characterized by the hottest month on record (January), where the continental mean temperature reached 36.9°C. Averaged nationally, the last four months of 2012 were 1.61°C higher than the long-term mean. Rainfall was below average for much of the country since July 2012. Along with the late onset of the Australian monsoon, such conditions primed the continent for extremely hot summer weather, including heat waves. Heat waves require detailed focus due to their large impacts (Karoly 2009; Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012), particularly on human health and morbidity (Nitschke et al. 2007). Much of inland Australia experienced extreme temperatures for over three consecutive weeks (Bureau of Meteorology 2013a).