Changing numbers, changing needs? A preliminary assessment of Indigenous population growth, 1991-96

Abstract

At the 1996 Census, a total of 352,970 individuals self-identified as Indigenous Australian. This represented an increase of 87,599 or 33 per cent since 1991, an increase which was way above expectation. As a consequence, demographic analysis has returned to the familiar condition of uncertainty about intercensal projections. This raises two questions of fundamental policy interest:

- does the considerable increase in numbers witnessed between 1991 and 1996 imply a concomitant increase in need?

- what are the implications of unpredictability for assessing change, and by implication policy and program performance, using social indicators?