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A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection

Shang, G.; Biggerstaff, B.J.; Gahan, M.E.; Lidbury, B.A.; Richardson, Alice

Description

Background The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorShang, G.
dc.contributor.authorBiggerstaff, B.J.
dc.contributor.authorGahan, M.E.
dc.contributor.authorLidbury, B.A.
dc.contributor.authorRichardson, Alice
dc.date.accessioned2017-12-14T06:51:25Z
dc.date.available2017-12-14T06:51:25Z
dc.identifier.issn14730502
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/138116
dc.description.abstractBackground The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model that promises improved accuracy, and is broadly applicable to assess the risk of arboviral transmission by blood transfusion. Material and methods Data were drawn from the Cairns Public Health Unit (Australia) and published literature. Based on the published models and using R code, a novel �combined� model was developed and validated against the BP model using sensitivity testing. Results The mean risk per 10,000 of the combined model is 0.98 with a range from 0.79 to 1.25, while the maximum risk was 4.45 ranging from 2.62 to 7.67 respectively. These parameters for the BP model were 1.20 ranging from 0.84 to 1.55, and 2.86 ranging from 1.33 to 5.23 respectively. Conclusion The combined simulation model is simple and robust. We propose it can be applied as a �generic� arbovirus model to assess the risk from known or novel arboviral threats to the blood supply. � 2016 Elsevier Ltd
dc.format.extent6 pages
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_AU
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd
dc.relation.ispartofTransfusion and Apheresis Science
dc.subjectArboviruses
dc.subjectBlood transfusion
dc.subjectPublic health
dc.subjectRisk estimation model
dc.titleA simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection
dc.typeJournal article
local.identifier.citationvolume55
dc.date.issued2016
local.type.statusPublished version
local.contributor.affiliationShang, G., The John Curtin School of Medical Research, Australian National University, Acton, Australia, Faculty of Education, Science, Technology and Mathematics, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT, Australia
local.contributor.affiliationBiggerstaff, B.J., Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control, 3156 Rampart Road, Fort Collins, CO, United States
local.contributor.affiliationRichardson, A.M., Faculty of Education, Science, Technology and Mathematics, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT, Australia, National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University, Acton, Australia
local.contributor.affiliationGahan, M.E., The John Curtin School of Medical Research, Australian National University, Acton, Australia, Faculty of Education, Science, Technology and Mathematics, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT, Australia
local.contributor.affiliationLidbury, B.A., The John Curtin School of Medical Research, Australian National University, Acton, Australia
local.bibliographicCitation.issue2
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage233
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage239
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.transci.2016.07.018
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-84992347241
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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