Population dynamics, education and manpower planning in Thailand : the case of the 15-19 age group

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine of demographic process in relation to school iv the dynamics enrolment and employment with particular reference to the Thai population aged 15-19 years. Secondary sources of information ar e widely used and the future enrolment and labour force participation of the study population is assessed. The study observes that fertility started to decline around 1960-1970. The fertility decline will have wider implications not only for the future size of the population but also for schooling and manpower planning. Universal primary school enrolment has virtually been achieved in Thailand. In the age group 6-11 years, the numbers to be enrolled in primary schooling will start to decline by 1991 and by 1997 for the secondary level aged 12-17 years. Taking the medium variant of fertility and mortality assumptions used in official planning in Thailand, the stud y applies three sets of enrolment and labour force assumptions to examine the future size of the population aged 15- 19 years in schooling and labour force. According to the medium variant of the school enrolment projection, school enrolment in the age group 15-19 will increase from 27 per cent in 1980 to 39 per cent in the year 2005. The labour force participation rate is estimated to decline from 64 per cent in 1980 to 42 per cent in the year 2005 for the same age group of population. The study concludes that Thailand is undergoin g a socio-economic and a demographic transition. Therefore, every effort should be made to reduce the gap bet we en educated labour supply and demand -so that a favourable situation can be created for the rapidly modernizing Thai economy and society in order to usher in a quick transition.