Illusory correlation, group size and memory

Abstract

Two studies were conducted to test the predictions of a multi-component model of distinctiveness-based illusory correlation (IC) regarding the use of episodic and evaluative information in the production of the phenomenon. Extending on the standard paradigm, participants were presented with 4 groups decreasing in size, but all exhibiting the same ratio of positive to negative behaviours. Study 1 (N = 75) specifically tested the role of group size and distinctiveness, by including a zero-frequency cell in the design. Consistent with predictions drawn from the proposed model, with decreasing group size, the magnitude of the IC effect showed a linear in- crease in judgments thought to be based on evaluative information. In Study 2 (N = 43), a number of changes were introduced to a group assignment task (double presentation, inclusion of decoys) that allowed a more rig- orous test of the predicted item-specific memory effects. In addition, a new multilevel, mixed logistic regression approach to signal-detection type analysis was used, providing a more flexible and reliable analysis than previ- ously. Again, with decreasing group size, IC effects showed the predicted monotonic increase on the measures (group assignment frequencies, likability ratings) thought to be dependent on evaluative information. At the same time, measures thought to be based on episodic information (free recall and group assignment accuracy) partly revealed the predicted enhanced episodic memory for smaller groups and negative items, while also supporting a distinctiveness-based approach. Additional analysis revealed that the pattern of results for judg- ments though to be based on evaluative information was independent of interpersonal variation in behavioral memory, as predicted by the multi-component model, and in contrast to predictions of the competing models. The results are discussed in terms of the implications of the findings for the proposed mechanisms of illusory correlation.