Thailand : Population levels and trends compared with levels and trends in rice production, by regions 1960's-1970's

Abstract

The thesis uses time series analysis and cross-section analysis to examine the problems of population growth, rice consumption, and rice production in Thailand. The focus of attention is on the period since 1960, but earlier periods are examined to place the analysis in the firm historical context. Until the 1960’s, government policy had always relied upon increases in area planted to boost rice production, and yield either remained constant or declined. However, from the beginning of the first National Economic Development Plan in 1961, there was a new concentration on increasing yield by the use of inputs such as irrigation and fertilizers. As a result, improvements in yield began to contribute more than expansion of area to the rise in production. However, increase in yield and production were still limited by physical constraints related to the country's climate and geographical characteristics, and by socio-economic factors, such as fluctuation in rice prices, fiscal policy and land tenure system. Despite the problems, rice production met the targets set by the first and second National Economic Development Plans (1961-1966 and 1967- 1971), but by the early 1970's declining rice export prices had increased the relative profitability of competitive crops. As a result, the third National Economic Development Plan (1972-1976) was based on the assumption that rice prices would remain low, and it set as its target an increase in rice production of only 1.6 percent per annum, compared with a population growth rate of approximately 3.1 percent per annum. The plan set very high target growth rate for competitive crops. Since 1972, however, rice prices have risen dramatically and export prospects have improved with the fading of the more excessive hopes for the 'green revolution' in other countries. These changes have restored the relative profitability of rice, and this thesis recommends ways of overcoming the constraints on production and of preserving Thailand's position as a rice exporter. Projections of domestic rice consumption for 1980 have been made and compared with projections of production. The latter are based on the assumption that it will be possible to reach the adjusted regional experimentally determined 'feasible yield' by 1980. If this target is reached, then in 1980 Thailand should have a rice surplus of between 4.9 and 6.5 million metric tonnes for exports and industrial purposes after all the requirements of domestic human consumption have been met.