An analysis of present social and other trends in Australia : especially as they relate to defence and defence facilities activities

Abstract

The Australian population growth has been slowing down since the early 1970s, falling from 1.9 per cent per annum during the period 1966 to 1971, to 1.2 per cent during the period 1971 to 1976, resulting In an increase in the median population age from 26.8 years to 28.3 years from 1971 to 1977. There is an increase in the proportion of elderly in the total population and a decrease in the proportion of the young and this trend will intensify in the years ahead as the population t ends towards a stable level. By 2000 AD it has been estimated the total population is likely to be between 16 to 18 million unless net inward migration, greater than 50 , 000 to 70,000 per annum takes place during the period 1980 to 2000 AD. This estimate is less than previous estimates which Ii ranged from 19 to 20 million and assumed a net immigration of 50,000 per annum coupled with a constant growth rate of 1 per cent per annum. Internal migration continues toward urban areas a t the expense of rural areas with overall discernable movement paths northward from southern states, and westward from eastern states. This trend is likely to continue in pursuit of job opportunities. The level of unemployment is relatively hi gh and this is likely to continue into the foreseeable future. This is due to three main causes: i.e., - general decline in total productivity as a result of weakening markets, particularly local markets, and extreme caution in the investment market. Available disposable income tends to be spent on essential commodity items which further weakens manufacturing and retail markets; - high labour costs resulting in the increasing use of time and labour-saving technology, particularly electronic computing equipment; the annual addition of young school leavers into the labour pool which is not offset by the increasing tendency toward employing experienced part-time married women. There is an observed decline in the number of technical and skilled workers in the labour force and these numbers are not being replaced by immigrants or apprentices , due to economic improvements in Eu rope and depressed local markets offering apprenticeships in Australia. Serious workforce imbalances can be expected in the future. There are no dramatic developments expected in rel'ation to new' technology, however considerable developments could occur in the refinement of existing technology, both in civil and military research and development, and this could impact on unemployment rates. The competition for land space by competing interests will continue and intensify in the future and balanced strategies will need to be developed in the national interest. Assessments have been made of potential land suitable for future increases in agricultural development and primary food production, particularly from dryland areas, and this undeveloped land could supply three to four times the existing Australian population or alternatively provide a further excess of food products for export . There are long-term reserves of fertiliser available to Australia to achieve this, however, climate and especially rainfall in these potential areas are the limiting factors. About half of the usable rainfall in this continent is unavailable as a potential resource because it occurs in the northern coastal areas at considerable distances from the assessed areas of potential development. The principal limiting factor in the future, if the development of Australia continues along present lines, is the local and world-wide depletion of essential non-renewable resources, principally liquid fuels. The structuring of society around this technology has provided a rapid expansion of growth since World War II; however , with limitations on future cheap supplies considerable readjustment becomes necessary. With increasing costs of liquid fuels, alternative energy sources and energy conservation become increasingly critical issues in the future. Australia has considerable reserves of coal and high grade uranium and the export of these minerals is likely to increase in the years ahead . The extraction of fuels from relatively unexploited oil shales will need to ' be examined very carefully in the future. Changes in social attitudes are perceived and these may adjust in time to Australia ' s changing circumstances. There is likely to be an increase in leisure-time/unemployment due to an increase in automation and mechanisation, resulting in various levels of frustration during what could be a lengthy transition period in Australian history. This also appears to be a world-wide problem, and could lead to a widespread expression of dissatisfaction. Civil infrastructure support to national defence and to the dependants of servicemen (military families) pose special problems for the location of defence facilities throughout Australia which require extensive and detailed examination.