Population projections for the Sudan, 1973-2003

Abstract

Tne population issue in the Sudan has a peculiar nature v inspite of the high growth rates, the country neither faces the problem of overpopulation, nor lacK of land and water resources to produce enough food for her people, 'ihe persistently high fertility and mortality rates, together with the large volume of rural-urban migration, created a situation that perpetuates the prohlems facing economic development in the Sudan. The study endeavours to demonstrate how the treatment of the demographic situation as an exogenous factor in economic development planning, is a selfdefeating approach. A holistic technique is used to develop a set of assumptions about the expected behaviour of the various demographic variables. The assumptions were generated on the basis of two considerations. Firstly, the interaction between . the demographic variables and the socio-economic structure in the Sudan. Secondly, the absence of any deliberate government policy to influence the behaviour of the demographic variables. Total population, as well as the provincial and the rural-urban populations, are projected for 30 years, starting from the year 1973. Tne analysis of various population characteristics at the end of the projection period, facilitates the evaluation of any changes that may take place througn the years. The results indicate that, the high growth potential and the high rural urban growth differentials will be retained. The need for the formulation of an official population policy is highly empnasized.