Levels and trends of fertility and mortality in Burma

Abstract

In Burma, levels of fertility and mortality are usually estimated directly using the data from the incomplete vital registration. These estimates, of course, are under-estimates and fertility and mortality are the areas for further research in Burma. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the levels and trends of fertility and mortality in Burma. Although the Governments of Burma have never intervened in the fertility attitude of the people, the former socialist Government limited access to any modern methods of contraception. However, this study shows that a fertility decline started in urban areas in the early 1970s. Moreover, the levels of fertility in Burma have never exceeded those in India and Bangladesh. Historically, Burma had lower fertility than India as a whole throughout the pre-War period. The higher age at marriage, the higher status of women, the higher level of female literacy and the main religion in Burma, Buddhism, which does not discourage the use of any methods of contraception, are the main causes of lower fertility in Burma. Recently, various sources, such as the United Nations, ESCAP, the World Bank and the US Bureau of the Census, have given quite different estimates of mortality, especially the level of infant mortality for Burma. Therefore, some indirect estimates of infant and child mortality, using the data on children ever born and children still living from the 1983 Census, are also made in this study. The estimates of both infant and general mortality derived in this study are much higher than both the Government's official estimates and the United Nations estimates. Moreover, this study shows that mortality has declined substantially since the mid-1950s, and the decline was much more faster in urban areas than in rural areas. However, it has apparently slowed down in recent years. The levels of mortality were much lower in Burma than in India throughout the pre-War period, and still lower than in India and Bangladesh but higher than in Thailand.