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Improving the on-line control of energy storage via forecast error metric customization

Abdulla, Khalid; Steer, Kent; Wirth, Andrew; Halgamuge, Saman

Description

The economical operation of many distributed energy assets relies on effective on-line control, which in turn often requires forecasts to be made. To produce and evaluate forecasts, the error metric by which one measures forecast accuracy must be selected. A new method is presented which customizes a forecast error metric to a given on-line control problem instance, in order to improve the controller's performance. This method is applied to the real-time operation of a battery with the...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorAbdulla, Khalid
dc.contributor.authorSteer, Kent
dc.contributor.authorWirth, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorHalgamuge, Saman
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-31T00:38:01Z
dc.identifier.citationAbdulla, Khalid, et al. "Improving the on-line control of energy storage via forecast error metric customization." Journal of Energy Storage 8 (2016): 51-59.
dc.identifier.issn2352-152X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/114195
dc.description.abstractThe economical operation of many distributed energy assets relies on effective on-line control, which in turn often requires forecasts to be made. To produce and evaluate forecasts, the error metric by which one measures forecast accuracy must be selected. A new method is presented which customizes a forecast error metric to a given on-line control problem instance, in order to improve the controller's performance. This method is applied to the real-time operation of a battery with the objective of minimizing the peak power drawn by an aggregation of customers over a billing period. In the empirical example considered, customizing the forecast error metric to each problem instance, improved performance by 45% on average, compared to a controller provided with a forecast of the same type, but trained to minimize mean-squared-error. Error metric customization is made possible by two newly proposed parametrized error metrics. The proposed method can be applied to any on-line optimization problem which requires a point forecast as an input, and which can be accurately simulated ahead of time. The method is likely to be most effective in applications where forecasting errors are quite high, as in these applications the choice of forecast error metric significantly affects the forecasts which are produced.
dc.description.sponsorshipKhalid did this work with the support of MIRS & MIFRS scholarships.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rights© 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
dc.sourceJournal of Energy Storage
dc.subjectDemand forecasting
dc.subjectForecast uncertainty
dc.subjectPredictive control
dc.subjectOptimization
dc.subjectEnergy storage
dc.titleImproving the on-line control of energy storage via forecast error metric customization
dc.typeJournal article
local.identifier.citationvolume8
dc.date.issued2016-11
local.publisher.urlhttp://www.elsevier.com/
local.type.statusAccepted Version
local.contributor.affiliationHalgamuge, S., Research School of Engineering, The Australian National University
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage51
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage59
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.est.2016.09.005
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dc.provenancehttps://www.elsevier.com/journals/journal-of-energy-storage/2352-152x/guide-for-authors..."You can post your accepted author manuscript immediately to an institutional repository and make this publicly available after an embargo period has expired." from the publisher site (as at 3/04/17).
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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