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Identifying Children at Risk of High Myopia Using Population Centile Curves of Refraction

Chen, Yanxian; Zhang, Jian; Morgan, Ian G; He, Mingguang

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PURPOSE To construct reference centile curves of refraction based on population-based data as an age-specific severity scale to evaluate their efficacy as a tool for identifying children at risk of developing high myopia in a longitudinal study. METHODS Data of 4218 children aged 5-15 years from the Guangzhou Refractive Error Study in Children (RESC) study, and 354 first-born twins from the Guangzhou Twin Eye Study (GTES) with annual visit were included in the analysis. Reference centile curves...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorChen, Yanxian
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Jian
dc.contributor.authorMorgan, Ian G
dc.contributor.authorHe, Mingguang
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-29T05:49:11Z
dc.date.available2017-03-29T05:49:11Z
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/114165
dc.description.abstractPURPOSE To construct reference centile curves of refraction based on population-based data as an age-specific severity scale to evaluate their efficacy as a tool for identifying children at risk of developing high myopia in a longitudinal study. METHODS Data of 4218 children aged 5-15 years from the Guangzhou Refractive Error Study in Children (RESC) study, and 354 first-born twins from the Guangzhou Twin Eye Study (GTES) with annual visit were included in the analysis. Reference centile curves for refraction were constructed using a quantile regression model based on the cycloplegic refraction data from the RESC. The risk of developing high myopia (spherical equivalent ≤ -6 diopters [D]) was evaluated as a diagnostic test using the twin follow-up data. RESULTS The centile curves suggested that the 3rd, 5th, and 10th percentile decreased from -0.25 D, 0.00 D and 0.25 D in 5 year-olds to -6.00 D, -5.65D and -4.63 D in 15 year-olds in the population-based data from RESC. In the GTES cohort, the 5th centile showed the most effective diagnostic value with a sensitivity of 92.9%, a specificity of 97.9% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65.0% in predicting high myopia onset (≤-6.00D) before the age of 15 years. The PPV was highest (87.5%) in 3rd centile but with only 50.0% sensitivity. The Mathew's correlation coefficient of 5th centile in predicting myopia of -6.0D/-5.0D/-4.0D by age of 15 was 0.77/0.51/0.30 respectively. CONCLUSIONS Reference centile curves provide an age-specific estimation on a severity scale of refractive error in school-aged children. Children located under lower percentiles at young age were more likely to have high myopia at 15 years or probably in adulthood.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds of the State Key Laboratory in Ophthalmology, Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province 2013B20400003, National Natural Science Foundation of China 81300795. Dr He receives support from the University of Melbourne Research at Melbourne Accelerator Program Professorship. The Centre for Eye Research.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science
dc.rights© 2016 Chen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
dc.sourcePloS one
dc.titleIdentifying Children at Risk of High Myopia Using Population Centile Curves of Refraction
dc.typeJournal article
local.identifier.citationvolume11
dc.date.issued2016-12-28
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4485658xPUB47
local.publisher.urlhttps://www.plos.org/
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationMorgan, Ian G., Research School of Biology, The Australian National University
local.identifier.essn1932-6203
local.bibliographicCitation.issue12
local.bibliographicCitation.startpagee0167642
local.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0167642
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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