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The effect of Wolbachia on dengue outbreaks when dengue is repeatedly introduced

Ndii, Meksianis Z; Allingham, David; Hickson, R I; Glass, Kathryn

Description

Use of the Wolbachia bacterium is a proposed new strategy to reduce dengue transmission, which results in around 390 million individuals infected annually. In places with strong variations in climatic conditions such as temperature and rainfall, dengue epidemics generally occur only at a certain time of the year. Where dengue is not endemic, the time of year in which imported cases enter the population plays a crucial role in determining the likelihood of outbreak occurrence. We use a...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorNdii, Meksianis Z
dc.contributor.authorAllingham, David
dc.contributor.authorHickson, R I
dc.contributor.authorGlass, Kathryn
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-16T01:43:02Z
dc.date.available2016-08-16T01:43:02Z
dc.identifier.issn0040-5809
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/107197
dc.description.abstractUse of the Wolbachia bacterium is a proposed new strategy to reduce dengue transmission, which results in around 390 million individuals infected annually. In places with strong variations in climatic conditions such as temperature and rainfall, dengue epidemics generally occur only at a certain time of the year. Where dengue is not endemic, the time of year in which imported cases enter the population plays a crucial role in determining the likelihood of outbreak occurrence. We use a mathematical model to study the effects of Wolbachia on dengue transmission dynamics and dengue seasonality. We focus in regions where dengue is not endemic but can spread due to the presence of a dengue vector and the arrival of people with dengue on a regular basis. Our results show that the time-window in which outbreaks can occur is reduced in the presence of Wolbachia-carrying Aedes aegypti mosquitoes by up to six weeks each year. We find that Wolbachia reduces overall case numbers by up to 80%. The strongest effect is obtained when the amplitude of the seasonal forcing is low (0.02-0.30). The benefits of Wolbachia also depend on the transmission rate, with the bacteria most effective at moderate transmission rates ranging between 0.08-0.12. Such rates are consistent with fitted estimates for Cairns, Australia.
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rights© 2016 Elsevier Inc.
dc.sourceTheoretical population biology
dc.subjectdengue
dc.subjectimportation
dc.subjectseasonality
dc.subjectwolbachia
dc.titleThe effect of Wolbachia on dengue outbreaks when dengue is repeatedly introduced
dc.typeJournal article
local.identifier.citationvolume111
dc.date.issued2016-05-20
local.publisher.urlhttp://www.elsevier.com/
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationGlass, K., National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University
local.identifier.essn1096-0325
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage9
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage15
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.tpb.2016.05.003
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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