The Doha agenda and agricultural trade reform: the role of economic analysis

Abstract

This article shows that research on international agricultural trade reform can make much greater contributions to understanding than was feasible in earlier trade negotiations. While current models typically estimate gains of less than 1% of GDP, new developments in theory and methodology provide the potential for quantitative analysis to be improved in at least six areas: measurement of protection for goods; incorporation of barriers to foreign trade and investment in services; representation of the counterfactual; disaggregation of products and regions; incorporation of new products; and inclusion of the productivity enhancement associated with trade reform.