Long run industrialisation in China: a strategic analysis

Abstract

This study seeks to determine China’s long-run prospects for ascending to high-income status. The conclusion reached is that China’s chances of joining the ranks of wealthy economies that define the global frontier are sound, but they are not overwhelming. This judgement is reached following a detailed empirical examination of China’s very long term economic history up to the time of writing; a lengthy assessment of the industrialisation path of Asia’s first industrial giant, Japan; and a discussion of the strategies pursued by selected first and second generation industrialisers. The entire argument is framed by Snooks’ dynamic strategy theory, which is expounded in a novel form and extended to meet the requirements of the task at hand. A new concept, the strategic alternator, is introduced to provide a formal microeconomic bridge between the general theory and the pragmatic empirical requirements of the study’s ultimate objective. Both the theoretical extension and the application of the dynamic strategy theory to China’s very long run pathway represent unique and original contributions.