Analysing and projecting Indigenous migration in Australia

Abstract

In this paper, a model is developed to project interregional migration flows for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) populations in Australia at the state and territory level by age and sex. Migration flow data, obtained from the three most recent Australian quinary censuses (2001, 2006 and 2011), are first assessed and analysed in comparison with the patterns of the corresponding non-Indigenous population. Log-linear models are used to identify the key structures and patterns over time. A model is then developed to project the migration flows by origin, destination, age and sex forward in 5-year increments to 2031. This includes incorporating techniques to overcome the small number cell issues associated with the very small population size of the Indigenous population. The results of this research provide (i) insights into the different migration patterns of an important but disadvantaged minority population in Australia and (ii) inputs for a dynamic multiregional model of Indigenous population change.