China's Domestic Transformation in a Global Context

Abstract

China is experiencing its most persistent substantial slowdown in economic growth since the early years of reform. Annual growth has sagged from an average of 10 percent per annum in the first decade of the century to just more than 7 per cent in 2014. As we discussed in the China Updates for 2006 and 2013, some slowing was inevitable and welcome to authorities. The slowdown anticipated in 2006 and 2013 is auspicious - driven by structural factors and necessary to sustain economic growth. The question now is whether we are observing the slowdown that is anticipated, and necessary to establish a foundation for a drive towards the productivity frontiers of the world economy, or a slowdown that has other causes.