Absolute risk of cardiovascular disease events, and blood pressure- and lipid-lowering therapy in Australia

Abstract

Objective: To quantify absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and treatment in Australian adults.

Design, participants: Cross-sectional representative study of 9564 people aged 18 years or more who had participated in the 2011–12 Australian National Health Measures Survey (response rate for those aged 45–74 years: 46.5%).

Main outcome measures: Prior CVD was ascertained and 5-year absolute risk of a primary CVD event calculated (using the Australian National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance algorithm; categories: low [< 10%], moderate [10–15%], and high [> 15%] risk) on the basis of data on medical history, risk factors and medications, derived from interviews, physical measurements, and blood and urine samples.

Results: Absolute CVD risk increased with age and was higher among men than women. Overall, 19.9% (95% CI, 18.5–21.3%) of Australians aged 45–74 years had a high absolute risk of a future CVD event (an estimated 1 445 000 people): 8.7% (95% CI, 7.8–9.6%) had prior CVD (estimated 634 000 people) and 11.2% (95% CI, 10.2–12.2%) had high primary CVD risk (estimated 811 000 people). A further 8.6% (95% CI, 7.4–9.8%, estimated 625 000) were at moderate primary CVD risk. Among those with prior CVD, 44.2% (95% CI, 36.8–51.6%) were receiving blood pressure- and lipid-lowering medications, 35.4% (95% CI, 27.8–43.0%) were receiving only one of these, and 20.4% (95% CI, 13.9–26.9%) were receiving neither. Corresponding figures for high primary CVD risk were 24.3% (95% CI, 18.3–30.3%); 28.7% (95% CI, 22.7–34.7%); and 47.1% (95% CI, 39.9–54.3%).

Conclusions: About one-fifth of the Australian population aged 45–74 years (about 1.4 million individuals) were estimated to have a high absolute risk of a future CVD event. Most (estimated 970 000) were not receiving currently recommended combination blood pressure- and lipid-lowering therapy, indicating substantial potential for health gains by increasing routine assessment and treatment according to absolute CVD risk.