Renewable technologies for energy security: institutions and investment in Fiji's electricity sector

Abstract

Renewable energy technologies have been advocated in Fiji's electricity sector on the basis that they improve energy security and serve as a risk-mitigation measure against oil price increases. This follows a decade of significant oil price volatility and historically high oil prices, which negatively affected the oil-dependent electricity sector in Fiji and other Small Island Developing States in the Pacific. This dissertation examines the extent to which renewable technologies can improve energy security in the electricity grid and in rural off-grid areas of Fiji. The main contributions from the research are a novel empirical analysis of generation cost-risk in the electricity grid; an analysis of institutions governing power sector investment; a survey, interview and focus group-based analysis of rural electricity supply; and an evaluation of implications of the research findings for policy. In Fiji's electricity grid, threats to energy security are primarily the result of increased generation costs and their impact on electricity prices. Risk is therefore financial. In this thesis, it is assessed using portfolio theory. Detailed data on costs and variability is fed into a stochastic portfolio model, which is developed to analyse the impact of renewable technologies on generation costs and financial risk in Fiji's electricity grid looking forward to 2025. The analysis demonstrates that renewable technologies can be expected to significantly improve the security of electricity supply through diversification, as the cost streams of renewable technologies are neither correlated with those of oil-based power generation, nor strongly correlated with each other. Importantly, investment in hydro, geothermal, biomass and bagasse-based power generation is found to lower expected average generation costs in the electricity grid. The implementation of energy efficiency measures also lowers generation costs and risk in the electricity grid. Renewable technology investment that is forecast in Fiji's electricity grid is found to fall short of what would be desirable based on the analysis, despite being significant. This investment deficit can be explained by institutional arrangements in the power sector. The research shows that barriers to investment in renewable technologies include political uncertainty, lack of available finance, and historically low feed-in and retail tariff rates. Regulatory reform now occurring is found to be promising in this regard, and is likely to attract increased investment in renewable technologies. Continuing political uncertainty nonetheless remains a barrier to investment, given the regulatory risk it entails. In rural off-grid areas of Fiji, energy security needs to be understood differently, with fuels such as kerosene commonly used as substitutes for electricity in the provision of services. This dissertation examines energy security and power generation in four rural communities in Vanua Levu (in northern Fiji), where there is widespread use of village diesel generators and household solar photovoltaic systems installed under government rural electrification programs. A survey, interviews and focus group discussions conducted for this dissertation show that un-electrified households were disproportionately impacted by oil price volatility in recent years, due to their reliance on fossil fuels. Power outages in electrified households were also found to be common. For village diesel systems, collective responsibility for financing fuel and maintenance is problematic. Informal norms and governance arrangements at the village level only partially resolve these issues. Solar photovoltaic systems in these communities also commonly perform poorly, primarily as a result of inadequate arrangements for maintenance established by government. A number of policy implications are identified in the dissertation. Forecast renewable technology investments in the electricity grid are worthwhile in light of their financial and risk mitigation benefits. Regulatory reform now underway and high retail and feed-in tariff rates already in place are facilitating such investment. Policy measures that could further encourage investment in renewable technologies include those designed to strengthen political and regulatory certainty; improve access to finance, land, and renewable energy resources; reform the sugar industry; and support research on renewable energy resources. Mechanisms designed to encourage the use of energy efficiency technologies should also be adopted. In rural off-grid areas, there are strong financial and social benefits from electricity provision, but reform of rural electrification programs is needed.