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A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom

Shang, Hanlin; Smith, Peter WF; Bijak, Jakub; Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz


Cohort component models are often used to model the evolution of an age-specific population, and are particularly useful for highlighting the demographic component that contributes the most to the population change. Recently, most of the attention has been devoted to the estimation of four specific demographic components, namely mortality, fertility, emigration and immigration. Many methods take a deterministic viewpoint, which can be quite restrictive in practice. The statistical method that...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2016
Type: Journal article
Source: International Journal of Forecasting
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.10.002


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