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Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: A comparison of functional principal component methods

Shang, Hanlin

Description

Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of the Human Fertility Database (2011), the paper compares the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (Comput Stat Data Anal 51(10), 4942-4956, 2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2012
Type: Journal article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/102566
Source: Journal of Population Research
DOI: 10.1007/s12546-012-9087-4

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