Vo, Tat Thang
Description
This thesis contains three studies which provide a complete set
of vulnerability assessments in Vietnam.
The first study in the thesis estimates the extent of
vulnerability and analyses who the vulnerable are. In addition,
this study investigates the link between dynamic poverty and
vulnerability, something which has rarely been done. To do this,
the most common definition of vulnerability as ‘Vulnerability
as Expected Poverty’ (VEP) is used, along with a...[Show more] data set
extracted from three consecutive surveys from 2002 to 2006. The
results reveal that, (i) vulnerability estimated using the
reference line is more appropriate than when estimated using the
actual poverty line for poverty prediction in the case of
Vietnam; (ii) ex ante vulnerability in previous periods might
translate to ex post poverty in the following periods though both
vulnerability and the incidence of poverty tend to fall over
time; (iii) the vulnerability of the poor may trap them in
poverty; and (iv) the vulnerability of the non-poor could propel
them into poverty.
The second study investigates sources of household vulnerability
and responses to risks in rural Vietnam using data from Vietnam
Access to Resources Household Surveys (VARHS). Vulnerability as
low utility measure (VEU) is employed to estimate and distinguish
the sources of vulnerability. Next the household’s behavior to
cope with shocks is analyzed; and finally the effectiveness of
the insurance mechanism is evaluated. The main findings are
that: (i) the utility of the average household is 71 per cent
less than the hypothetical situation without any risk or
inequality in consumption, and idiosyncratic shocks contribute 50
per cent of the loss; (ii) households depend heavily on informal
coping strategies such as food consumption reduction, savings
withdrawal, taking children out of school, or capital depletion.
The opportunity to borrow money from formal institutions is
limited, while subsidies from the government or NGOs are
available only in cases of natural disaster; and (iii) household
consumption and income exhibit highly correlated variation,
implying that existing informal insurance instruments are less
effective than expected.
The third study provides new evidence on the impact of health
insurance coverage on household vulnerability using Vietnam
Access to Resources Household Surveys (VARHS) undertaken during
2010-2012. The outcomes of interest are the probability of
falling into poverty (VEP) and the magnitude of utility loss
(VEU). Since the
data set is not from an intervention program, the propensity
score- matching method is employed to construct treatment and
control groups. Risk aversion is calculated and used as an
important explanatory variable for health insurance enrollment.
The implications of the study suggest actions for the government
to attain its goal of universal health insurance coverage. The
estimates show that health insurance coverage helps rural
households in Vietnam reduce the idiosyncratic component of
utility loss by 81 per cent and has the added benefit of
reducing the probability of being poor by about 19 per cent. The
reverse effect of the risk aversion on health insurance
enrollment implies that not only is there a potential
‘rigidity’ effect on health insurance demand, but also that
there are deficiencies in health insurance market.
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