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Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions

Booth, Heather; Hyndman, Rob; Tickle, Leonie; de Jong, Piet


We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986-2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2006-10-20
Type: Journal article
Source: Demographic Research
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.9


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