Conflictive Uncertainty: A Framework for Understanding the Aversion to Conflicting Information in Social Contexts

Abstract

Conflicting information can significantly undermine emotions, cognition, and behavior. This paper aims to understand the negative impact of conflicting information through the lens of conflictive uncertainty. Conflictive uncertainty encompasses two dimensions: the epistemological dimension, which involves uncertainty and ambiguity about outcomes and probabilities, and the interpersonal dimension, which arises from doubts about the credibility of sources. Three experiments were conducted to test this framework. Experiment 1 found that, under conflictive uncertainty, participants rated lower source credibility and exhibited weaker preferences compared to ambiguity. Experiment 2 revealed that the negative impact of conflicting information on the strength of preference was mediated by reduced source credibility and increased perceived uncertainty. Experiment 3 demonstrated that neutralizing the loss of credibility mitigated the adverse effects of conflicting information on the strength of preference. These findings highlight the roles of source credibility and perceived uncertainty in understanding the negative effects of conflicting information on decision-making.