Robust Statistical Estimation for Capture-Recapture Using Administrative Data

Abstract

The first key use of a nation’s Census is to count its resident population. A Census will have counting errors, often referred to as over-coverage and under-coverage. So it is common practice in many countries to conduct an independent count of its residents, a so-called coverage survey, and estimate or adjust for these counting errors within the capture-recapture framework. In recent times, many censuses and coverage surveys have faced challenges in counting the population efficiently and effectively due to rising costs, declining response rates, and respondent burden. This has led to a shift toward exploring the role that administrative registers could play in counting the population within the capture-recapture framework. Administrative registers are relatively inexpensive and can have high coverage of a nation’s population. This paper explores methods to overcome common problems with the use of administrative registers within this framework, including linking errors and scoping the register to only capture residents. These methods are empirically assessed in the context of the Australian population.