Online interest in ADHD predicts ADHD medication prescriptions in Australia from 2004 to 2023: A time-series analysis revealing COVID-19-related acceleration

Abstract

Objective: Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication prescriptions in Australia have grown sharply in recent years. We examined the association between online interest in ADHD and prescriptions. Methods: Monthly Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and Repatriation PBS (RPBS) Item Reports of ADHD prescriptions and Australian ADHD-related Google Trends (GT) data (2004–2023) were sourced. We modelled the lagged effect of GT on ADHD medication prescriptions, using an autoregressive moving average model with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, adjusting for COVID-19 lockdown effects. Results were compared to a model of GT for pain-related searches and PBS/RPBS opioid prescriptions, and counterfactual alternatives: (1) ADHD-related GT and opioid prescriptions and (2) pain-related GT and ADHD prescriptions. We descriptively analysed additional ADHD-related online news data. Results: Annual prescriptions doubled from 1,424,904 in 2020 to 3,112,072 in 2023. ADHD medication prescriptions and ADHD-related GT considerably increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. GT had a statistically significant positive lagged association with ADHD prescriptions. Comparator models did not show statistically significant associations between GT and prescriptions. Online news data supported recently increased public interest in ADHD. Conclusions: ADHD-related online interest predicts increased ADHD prescriptions, which was accentuated during the pandemic. Studies are needed to evaluate causal pathways, health information quality and sociodemographic determinants.