Occurrence and Distribution of Long-Term Variability in Precipitation Classes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

Abstract

Various precipitation-related studies have been conducted on the Yangtze River. However, the topography and atmospheric circulation regime of the Source Region of the Yangtze River (SRYZ) differ from other basin parts. Along with natural uniqueness, precipitation constitutes over 60% of the direct discharge in the SRYZ, which depicts the decisive role of precipitation and a necessary study on the verge of climate change. The study evaluates the event distribution of long-term variability in precipitation classes in the SRYZ. The precipitation was classified into three precipitation classes: light precipitation (0-5 mm, 5-10 mm), moderate precipitation (10-15 mm, 15-20 mm, 20-25 mm), and heavy precipitation (>25 mm). The year 1998 was detected as a changing year using the Pettitt test in the precipitation time series; therefore, the time series was divided into three scenarios: Scenario-R (1961-2016), the pre-change point (Scenario-I; 1961-1998), and the post-change point (Scenario-II; 1999-2016). Observed annual precipitation amounts in the SRYZ during Scenario-R and Scenario-I significantly increased by 13.63 mm/decade and 48.8 mm/decade, respectively. The same increasing trend was evident in seasonal periods. On a daily scale, light precipitation (0-5 mm) covered most of the days during the entire period, with rainy days accounting for 83.50%, 84.5%, and 81.30%. These rainy days received up to 40%, 41%, and 38% of the annual precipitation during Scenario-R, Scenario-I, and Scenario-II, respectively. Consequently, these key findings of the study will be helpful in basin-scale water resources management.