Long-Term Spatiotemporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Evapotranspiration Across Arid Asia and Africa

Abstract

This study examines trends in precipitation (PRE), maximum temperature (TMAX), minimum temperature (TMIN), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the Modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator between 1901 and 2022 in the arid lands of Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa. The results reveal complex spatial and temporal climate change patterns across the study area. Annual PRE shows a slight negative trend (Z = −0.881, p = 0.378), with significant decreases from 1951–2000 (Z = −3.329, p = 0.001). The temperatures exhibit strong warming trends (TMIN: Z = 9.591, p < 0.001; TMAX: Z = 8.405, p < 0.001). PET increased significantly (Z = 6.041, p < 0.001), with acceleration in recent decades. Spatially, precipitation decreased by 10% in maximum annual values, while PET increased by 10–15% in many areas. Temperature increases of 2–3 °C were observed, with TMAX rising from 36–39 °C to 39–42 °C in some MENA regions. Seasonal analysis shows winter precipitation decreasing significantly in recent years (Z = −1.974, p = 0.048), while summer PET shows the strongest increasing trend (Z = 5.647, p < 0.001). Spatial analysis revealed clear latitudinal gradients in temperature and PET, with higher values in southern regions. PRE patterns were more complex, with coastal and mountainous areas receiving more precipitation. The combination of rising temperatures, increasing PET, and variable PRE trends suggest an overall intensification of aridity in many parts of the region. This analysis provides crucial insights into the climate variability of these water-scarce areas, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies in water resource management, agriculture, and ecosystem conservation.