Forecasting school enrollments in the Australian Capital Territory

Abstract

School enrollment forecasts are vital for effective planning. This study introduces a probabilistic multiregional population projection model, which accounts for different components, including preschool entries, migration, grade progression, and graduations. Using different distributions with a cohort component projection and Monte Carlo simulation, this paper forecasts student enrollments for each school and academic year level in the Australian Capital Territory based on the annual record-level administrative data. In the in-sample validation tests, the model’s overall performance is robust, and the probabilistic design offers reliable prediction intervals reflecting the variation in observed values. The paper ends with a discussion on the importance of prediction intervals for informing school planning.