Some implications of learning for price stability

Abstract

Survey data on expectations of a range of macroeconomic variables exhibit lowfrequency drift. In a New Keynesian model consistent with these empirical properties, optimal policy in general delivers a positive inflation rate in the long run. Two special cases deliver classic outcomes under rational expectations: as the degree of lowfrequency variation in beliefs goes to zero, the long-run inflation rate coincides with the inflation bias under optimal discretion||for non-zero low-frequency drift in beliefs, as households become highly patient valuing utility in any period equally, the optimal longrun inflation rate coincides with optimal commitment - price stability is optimal. Show more